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Home » Chuck, Featured, Headline, News, Ratings, Supernatural, US Shows

Early Call – shows that will stick, shows that won’t

Written by Kevin Beaumont on October 6, 2010 – 12:16 amView Comments

Ratings are sometimes cruel.  They can lead to a show you love leaving you.  They can also lead to situations where we question how such a good show could possibly fail, why, when all our friends watch it, the rest of the world seems indifferent. You may find the following report disturbing…

The Event – NBC

Will it stick? According to Nielsen ratings, probably not.  The first three episodes of the show has lost nearly 40% of the critical 18-49 demographic networks aim for.  The only chance this show has is to stop haemorrhaging viewers  - and fast.

Should it stick? It’s a great premise for a show and there are enough characters and mystery to sustain the story for a good while – but without giving us compelling characters who we care about, The Event can’t make viewers invest no matter how many bangs come in for the buck.

Chance of surviving to another season: 30%

UnderCovers – NBC

Will it stick? The JJ Abrams directed, globe trotting ‘Undercovers came in at the very expensive end of this seasons pilots yet scored just 2.1 in the 18-49 demo for NBC.  That was a massive under performance, given the big name director and expense spent on promotion  The second episode, written by Abrams and co-creator Josh Reims, then pulled in just 1.6 in the 18-49 demo last week.  This show will very likely be the most expensive ratings failure of the entire season.

Should it stick? The show is light, fluffy fun – just the kind of thing audiences often bond with.  The leads put in great performances  and the writing is serviceable.  So, what’s wrong?  After watching 2 hours of this show, I’m not really sure why I should bother watching the third episode.  Self-contained stories are fun , I enjoy them (especially at the start of a series) but when the stakes are literally non-existent (there’s no risk of anybody getting a scratch on themselves, let alone dying) there’s no reason to care.  It got all the right production elements, but it fell apart when trying to craft a compelling narrative.

Chance of surviving to another season: 5%

Chuck – NBC

Will it stick? I’m sure various websites will be scaremongering-for-hits over this one getting canned, but the truth is NBC has so many leaks to plug this is one of the few shows they have which is holding its audience.  The audience is, of course, tiny – but NBC isn’t about to send Zachary Levi and friends packing yet.

Should it stick? It’s got a loyal audience of hardcore obsessives who are willing to spend big on sandwiches to keep seeing Adam Baldwin running around with guns.  It’s got a great lead.  And there’s a dude with a beard.

Chance of surviving to another season: 50%

Supernatural – The CW

Will it stick? The CW’s Friday lineup is currently thrashing FOX – needless to say, Supernatural isn’t going anywhere.  I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if The CW tried to do some last minute deals to keep Smallville (or the Smallville brand) around next season, too.

Should it stick? The show has perfected both hot boys and hot story.  Hells yeah.

Chance of surviving to another season: 90%

Outsourced – NBC

Will it stick? The ratings are strong, and hold up reasonably well over the first two episodes. It has been given a critical mauling, but as we’ve seen with Cougar Town, a comedy doesn’t necessarily need good reviews to get an audience.

Should it stick? I honestly can’t decide if this show is vaguely funny or hilariously offensive.  What is clear is that they’ve taken a great premise and watered it down to fluffy jokes about beef.

Chance of surviving to another season: 60%

NikitaThe CW

Will it stick? It’s looking good compared to the rest of The CW’s shows.  Although The CW is generally nowhere visible on the overall map, on network TV you are chased by the bear on your own network – i.e. as long as you aren’t last, you’re fine.  This show isn’t last by far.

Should it stick? Yes.  It’s one of the strongest shows this season so far.  Producer Craig Silverstein has crafted a show which knows exactly what it is trying to do – each episode bobs along effortlessly.  There’s a wider plotline, but episodes are concentrating on the week-to-week right now (as they should when a show begins).  There are characters to care about, but there’s enough mystery for you to ponder motivations.  And Nikita looks like the kind of character who is one scene short of having a violent breakdown at any moment. In short, they’re catering for their audience extremely well.

Chance of surviving to another season: 90%

Hawaii Five-O – CBS

Will it stick? Strongest ratings of a new drama this season, and it has held them well for weeks two and three.  This will receive additional episode orders soon.

Should it stick? Yes.  It has bickering, it looks great, it’s funny and it has characters who are just waiting to have an explosive argument.  Probably with actual explosions.   It’s Star Trek in Hawaii.  Without the geeks, but with the pretty.

Chance of surviving to another season: 95%

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